Discussion Topic

If the war ends, then what?

November 5, 2019

There has been a lot written about the US-China trade war. Phase one deals, matters that need to be addressed to facilitate Phase two and beyond, Trust issues, Execution angst, crikeys there even seems to be a song and dance about where Phase One should be signed. I’d simply suggest you nut it out and sign it troops, matters not a jot where it is signed apart from the dotted line.

I’m ignoring all that noise and wondering about the bigger picture. Most of the end game analysis seems to be that the global economy sneaks out of trouble if the war ends. There are two camps of course on that and they are at the far opposite ends of the spectrum. Some say all is AOK, nothing to worry about and there are others who are screaming Armageddon is coming as loud as they can. I’m not screaming Armageddon but I do worry that we are overall in some trouble. So, I wonder, does it really matter if the war ends, will it avert calamity? Whichever it is I think its fine to ask that question because to date I haven’t seen any pundit talk about this. Maybe someone has and I’ve missed but I sit here all day  staring at the markets, reading the wires and listening to the news feeds and it hasn’t come up.

Cessation of hostilities might save the day, it may simply delay a meltdown or could it be that nothing from here can stop it.  I can’t answer that one.  Someone can but not me and likely not you either. One thing you can be sure of, if it doesn’t stop it you and I are the ones who will have to deal with it.

I could be jumping at shadows here but if one doesn’t jump at shadows you might get run over by the beast the shadow is coming from.