Discussion Topic

A new year with old problems…

January 1, 2020

As one-year ends and another starts I didn’t make it past 1030pm again but frankly haven’t been that bothered to for quite a few years now… Besides the only thing that changed was the date so I couldn’t see the point in loading up on Champers and doing the Joey from Friends dance in front of the guests as I used to.

That’s not a throwaway line by the way. Literally the only thing that has changed is the date. It’s not like everything resets on the stroke of midnight. We still have al the same issues and challenges. I look forward to with, as Capt. Blackadder says, a due sense of exhaustion and dread,” Crazy Fans” senate trial. It will be a Cluster F no doubt but at least it will be entertaining on some level.

Logic tells us he will escape the gallows but with time still left and lots of scuttlebutt still doing the rounds who knows maybe some of his Razor brethren jump the fence. Time is relevant here as its time he can still shoot his mouth off and quite possibly his foot as well. Razors management will be hoping he keeps his trap shut as much as possible. While they are at it, they should muzzle “Rowdy” Rudy G as well as he is becoming a real liability and although he thinks he is helping he simply isn’t.

“Deal Man” Don announced he will be signing the P1 deal on Jan 15th in the WH. Social media got ramped up with loads of people saying they will believe that when they see it and some simply calling bullshit. I think we can take it as read that he will, but as we have previously pointed out it is not much more than a ceasefire and the big tickets items are still to be agreed on. Given it took them so long to agree on P1 I wouldn’t expect a world speed record on P2.

I have some decent alpha in silver and gold right now but am very tempted to book it pre the signing as I suspect the market will react like all the problems go away with it. They don’t. Will have sneaky bids in below whether I take profit or not.

This aside there still are, as we have discussed, other macro issues that suggest trouble globally on the horizon. It’s easy to forget these amongst the haze of the trade war but I haven’t and neither should you. Amongst these the growing debt burden building from privates, to corporates and even sovereigns is most alarming. Throw in a US stock market that thinks its bullet proof and you a have a ticker. We might escape needing it but if you have an economic fallout shelter at least know where the key is. If the ticking stops you may not have much time to fumble around in the dark looking for it and unlocking the door. Perhaps unlock the door and give it a spring clean now to save time.

 

I’ll get back in my box now.